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GBPJPY - Analysis and my Forecast for a new Wyckoffian friend

In this post I will explain how Advanced Wyckoff trading concepts such as Cause and Effect, Effort vs. Result and Change in Behavior by Wyckoff and Weis can be easily identified by my creation Weis Wave with Speed Index taking advantage of the different wave types as well as Speed Index and the Plutus Patterns.

In the chart below all the concepts will be demonstrated. I have annotated the waves with numbers.

The story:

We are in very strong uptrend after breaking many ranges and now we got stuck in another range.

  1. Reading the range:The progressive volume rate wave shows an increase as price goes down at the bottom of the range and then price moves up while the rate is dropping. This means is buying at the bottom. Reading progressive volume rate:

    1. Buying at the bottom: ˅ shaped price + ˄ on progresive volume rate waves

    2. Selling at the top: ˄ shaped price + ˄ on progresive volume rate waves

  2. Exiting the Range: Down Volume Wave + Small Pip move +High SI= Hard to Move Dn (means buying on the down move) = Effort vs. Result. Plutus Reversal Long with SI 21.5 provides us with the entry.

  3. Wave 2 plus the previous range buying is the Cause and wave 3 is the Effect. Wave 3 is a fast wave "Is it False or True?" The asnswer is that it is true because this move was created by the Effort of wave 2. Just because we found sellers afterwards it does not mean that this was false. Market Makers love to do that: Buy , lure you to enter, Close postitions and then Sell. After exiting the range with proper moves and moving 36 pips above our entry, Sellers came in.

  4. Wave 4. is a Push Dn: High Dn Volume+Small Pip Move+High SI= Push Dn= Effort vs. Result. How do I know that this is a Push Dn and Not Hard to Move Down? Simple, next up waves never broke the high of that Wave 4. High SI of 33.8 and that is Change in Behavior because there is no such high SI in all the down waves.

  5. Wave 5 with SI 18.5 is another Push Dn

  6. Waves 6 and 7 are fast down waves and Plutus is giving us PS and PRS signal to short. Are the fast moves true or false? They are true because Wave 4 and 5 are the Cause and wave 6 and 7 are the Effect.

The Forecast is Short even though the price can reach up to the top again without justified volume waves. Unless we see buyers come in again with real volume waves and pip moves.

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